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OUT_14604

Bakery · Small · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
67.9 L
Recent monthly avg
23.5 L
Own Q90
73.4 L
Active months
20 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
6
HHI (1.5 km)
2,524
Replenishment friction
25.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +14.0 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~14.0 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • mass_share
    +1.1
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +0.9
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +0.6
  • avg_price_per_liter
    +0.6
  • Longitude
    +0.4

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.5
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.1
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.1
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.4
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.5

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 70.2 L → after 70.2 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 70.2 L → after 70.2 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.