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OUT_14421

Bakery · Large · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_01

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
588.6 L
Recent monthly avg
16.1 L
Own Q90
45.6 L
Active months
15 / 36
Coolers
3
Local competitors (1 km)
1
HHI (1.5 km)
4,171
Replenishment friction
20.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +113.3 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~113.3 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Cooler_Count
    +303.5
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +79.6
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +59.8
  • monthly_cv
    +3.6
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +2.8

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -51.4
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -50.9
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -24.0
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -16.4
  • monthly_volume_std
    -13.2

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 566.6 L → after 566.6 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 566.6 L → after 566.6 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.