All outlets

OUT_14261

Bakery · Small · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_02

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
65.8 L
Recent monthly avg
17.3 L
Own Q90
68.3 L
Active months
14 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
0
HHI (1.5 km)
10,000
Replenishment friction
21.4%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +14.0 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~14.0 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Add 2th cooler to outlet

    +1.8 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +1.8 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_cv
    +1.2
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +0.8
  • Longitude
    +0.7
  • territory_radius_m
    +0.7
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +0.6

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.2
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.8
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.3
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -23.7
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.0

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+1.8 L / mo
base 70.0 L → after 71.8 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 70.0 L → after 70.0 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.