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OUT_14001

SMMT · Small · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_02

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
64.2 L
Recent monthly avg
12.1 L
Own Q90
37.3 L
Active months
12 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
4
HHI (1.5 km)
2,808
Replenishment friction
33.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +13.3 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~13.3 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Add 2th cooler to outlet

    +1.8 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +1.8 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_cv
    +2.4
  • super_premium_share
    +1.0
  • spatial_demand_score
    +0.8
  • avg_price_per_liter
    +0.7
  • hhi_1500m
    +0.5

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.1
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.5
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -24.8
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.3
  • monthly_volume_std
    -24.1

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+1.8 L / mo
base 66.5 L → after 68.3 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 66.5 L → after 66.5 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.