All outlets

OUT_13836

SMMT · Large · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_02

High

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
538.2 L
Recent monthly avg
16.7 L
Own Q90
63.4 L
Active months
18 / 36
Coolers
4
Local competitors (1 km)
2
HHI (1.5 km)
5,434
Replenishment friction
16.7%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 5th cooler to outlet

    +326.7 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +326.7 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +108.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~108.8 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Cooler_Count
    +304.5
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +77.8
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +61.5
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +2.6
  • monthly_cv
    +0.8

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -51.3
  • monthly_volume_mean
    -51.3
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -24.4
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -17.0
  • monthly_volume_std
    -16.6

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+326.7 L / mo
base 544.0 L → after 870.6 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 544.0 L → after 544.0 L

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
326.7 L
Monthly margin
LKR 10,914
Payback
4.6 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 183,258

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.