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OUT_13564

Bakery · Extra Large · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_01

Moderate

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
1,307.2 L
Recent monthly avg
25.8 L
Own Q90
75.6 L
Active months
18 / 36
Coolers
5
Local competitors (1 km)
2
HHI (1.5 km)
3,305
Replenishment friction
22.2%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +259.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~259.8 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Cooler_Count
    +718.1
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    +449.9
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +24.9
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +8.1
  • Longitude
    +1.7

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -57.9
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -36.7
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -24.9
  • mass_share
    -19.5
  • Latitude
    -18.3

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 1,299.1 L → after 1,299.1 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 1,299.1 L → after 1,299.1 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.