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OUT_13490

SMMT · Medium · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
221.4 L
Recent monthly avg
107.2 L
Own Q90
235.3 L
Active months
27 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
1
HHI (1.5 km)
5,333
Replenishment friction
18.5%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 3th cooler to outlet

    +285.7 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +285.7 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +43.2 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~43.2 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +34.7
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +17.1
  • monthly_volume_std
    +3.2
  • territory_radius_m
    +0.6
  • Longitude
    +0.5

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -60.1
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.4
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -20.1
  • monthly_volume_median
    -15.7
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -9.7

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+285.7 L / mo
base 216.0 L → after 501.6 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 216.0 L → after 216.0 L

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
285.7 L
Monthly margin
LKR 9,230
Payback
5.4 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 147,272

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.