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OUT_13174

Eatery · Small · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_02

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
75.3 L
Recent monthly avg
24.9 L
Own Q90
87.9 L
Active months
15 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
1
HHI (1.5 km)
4,497
Replenishment friction
40.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +16.3 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~16.3 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · sku_mix

    Shift SKU mix toward premium (stock 1-2 additional premium SKUs)

    +5.6 L / mo

    Outlet currently sells 3.0% premium SKUs vs top-performing peers in the same cohort at 14.4%. Closing this gap typically lifts volume by ~5.6 L/month.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • mid_share
    +2.7
  • avg_price_per_liter
    +2.3
  • mass_share
    +2.0
  • super_premium_share
    +1.3
  • spatial_demand_score
    +1.2

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.2
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.1
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.0
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.6
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -22.6

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 81.7 L → after 81.7 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 81.7 L → after 81.7 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.