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OUT_12927

Grocery · Large · Central · distributor DIST_C_03

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
615.5 L
Recent monthly avg
19.5 L
Own Q90
61.8 L
Active months
15 / 36
Coolers
3
Local competitors (1 km)
7
HHI (1.5 km)
3,688
Replenishment friction
33.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +120.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~120.7 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Cooler_Count
    +313.6
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +83.3
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +61.7
  • super_premium_share
    +4.3
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +3.7

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -49.8
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -49.8
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -20.7
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -15.2
  • monthly_volume_std
    -13.0

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 603.7 L → after 603.7 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 603.7 L → after 603.7 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.