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OUT_12568

SMMT · Small · Central · distributor DIST_C_01

High

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
84.0 L
Recent monthly avg
21.7 L
Own Q90
86.0 L
Active months
15 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
4
HHI (1.5 km)
3,669
Replenishment friction
13.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +17.2 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~17.1 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Place first cooler at outlet

    +0.5 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +0.5 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • mass_share
    +1.8
  • mid_share
    +1.5
  • monthly_cv
    +1.3
  • Longitude
    +0.8
  • avg_price_per_liter
    +0.7

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -61.1
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.4
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.3
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -23.2
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -22.1

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+0.5 L / mo
base 85.7 L → after 86.2 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 85.7 L → after 85.7 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.