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OUT_12551

Eatery · Small · Central · distributor DIST_C_02

Moderate

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
73.2 L
Recent monthly avg
21.2 L
Own Q90
76.3 L
Active months
19 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
7
HHI (1.5 km)
3,138
Replenishment friction
42.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +14.6 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~14.6 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • mass_share
    +1.7
  • super_premium_share
    +1.2
  • spatial_demand_score
    +1.0
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +0.8
  • avg_price_per_liter
    +0.8

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.4
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.0
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.4
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.9
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -22.3

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 72.8 L → after 72.8 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 72.8 L → after 72.8 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.