All outlets

OUT_12077

Grocery · Large · Central · distributor DIST_C_01

High

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
593.1 L
Recent monthly avg
21.5 L
Own Q90
77.7 L
Active months
17 / 36
Coolers
4
Local competitors (1 km)
7
HHI (1.5 km)
1,250
Replenishment friction
35.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 5th cooler to outlet

    +319.5 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +319.5 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +120.6 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~120.5 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Cooler_Count
    +315.1
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +84.7
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +63.0
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +3.7
  • super_premium_share
    +3.1

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -50.8
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -49.5
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -22.3
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -15.1
  • monthly_volume_std
    -13.8

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+319.5 L / mo
base 602.7 L → after 922.2 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 602.7 L → after 602.7 L

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
319.5 L
Monthly margin
LKR 9,449
Payback
5.3 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 151,961

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.