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OUT_11810

Bakery · Small · Central · distributor DIST_C_03

Moderate

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
63.1 L
Recent monthly avg
19.0 L
Own Q90
61.7 L
Active months
22 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
5
HHI (1.5 km)
3,962
Replenishment friction
0.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +12.5 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~12.5 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +0.8
  • Longitude
    +0.8
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +0.6
  • territory_radius_m
    +0.4
  • replenishment_friction
    +0.4

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.5
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.5
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.3
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -23.8
  • monthly_volume_std
    -22.8

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 62.6 L → after 62.6 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 62.6 L → after 62.6 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.