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OUT_11494

SMMT · Large · Central · distributor DIST_C_02

High

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
560.3 L
Recent monthly avg
17.6 L
Own Q90
56.9 L
Active months
16 / 36
Coolers
4
Local competitors (1 km)
7
HHI (1.5 km)
1,408
Replenishment friction
31.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 5th cooler to outlet

    +328.8 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +328.8 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +116.5 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~116.5 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Cooler_Count
    +311.2
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +83.6
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +63.6
  • super_premium_share
    +4.7
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +3.8

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -50.8
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -50.6
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -22.6
  • monthly_volume_std
    -16.8
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -15.6

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+328.8 L / mo
base 582.4 L → after 911.2 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 582.4 L → after 582.4 L

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
328.8 L
Monthly margin
LKR 10,958
Payback
4.6 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 184,208

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.