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OUT_11022

SMMT · Extra Large · Central · distributor DIST_C_02

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
1,160.4 L
Recent monthly avg
18.4 L
Own Q90
75.4 L
Active months
14 / 36
Coolers
5
Local competitors (1 km)
2
HHI (1.5 km)
3,718
Replenishment friction
21.4%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +236.0 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~236.0 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Cooler_Count
    +696.3
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    +422.7
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +25.5
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +10.4
  • avg_price_per_liter
    +0.7

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -59.0
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -38.5
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -28.8
  • mass_share
    -22.0
  • mid_share
    -21.1

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 1,179.8 L → after 1,179.8 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 1,179.8 L → after 1,179.8 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.