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OUT_10888

Hotel · Small · Central · distributor DIST_C_03

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
68.8 L
Recent monthly avg
16.7 L
Own Q90
60.0 L
Active months
16 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
5
HHI (1.5 km)
3,505
Replenishment friction
18.8%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +13.4 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~13.4 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · sku_mix

    Shift SKU mix toward premium (stock 1-2 additional premium SKUs)

    +3.5 L / mo

    Outlet currently sells 3.9% premium SKUs vs top-performing peers in the same cohort at 12.6%. Closing this gap typically lifts volume by ~3.5 L/month.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Longitude
    +0.8
  • avg_price_per_liter
    +0.8
  • spatial_demand_score
    +0.7
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +0.7
  • monthly_cv
    +0.5

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.3
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.1
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -25.7
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.3
  • monthly_volume_std
    -22.7

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 66.9 L → after 66.9 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 66.9 L → after 66.9 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.