All outlets

OUT_10734

Bakery · Medium · Central · distributor DIST_C_03

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
246.9 L
Recent monthly avg
137.5 L
Own Q90
284.6 L
Active months
29 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
4
HHI (1.5 km)
4,587
Replenishment friction
17.2%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +46.9 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~46.9 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +35.1
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +18.6
  • monthly_volume_std
    +7.5
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +2.9
  • mass_share
    +2.5

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -56.7
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.3
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.0
  • monthly_volume_median
    -15.9
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -9.7

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 234.5 L → after 234.5 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 234.5 L → after 234.5 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.