All outlets

OUT_10689

Bakery · Medium · Central · distributor DIST_C_03

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
222.8 L
Recent monthly avg
89.3 L
Own Q90
222.6 L
Active months
24 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
5
HHI (1.5 km)
2,488
Replenishment friction
25.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 3th cooler to outlet

    +262.9 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +262.8 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +42.2 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~42.2 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +33.2
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +16.2
  • monthly_volume_std
    +3.2
  • territory_radius_m
    +1.0
  • Longitude
    +0.6

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -59.5
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -27.9
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -19.4
  • monthly_volume_median
    -15.7
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -9.0

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+262.8 L / mo
base 211.2 L → after 474.0 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 211.2 L → after 211.2 L

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
262.8 L
Monthly margin
LKR 9,833
Payback
5.1 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 160,171

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.