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OUT_10658

Bakery · Small · Central · distributor DIST_C_01

Moderate

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
79.4 L
Recent monthly avg
21.5 L
Own Q90
73.0 L
Active months
20 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
3
HHI (1.5 km)
1,810
Replenishment friction
15.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +15.1 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~15.1 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · sku_mix

    Shift SKU mix toward premium (stock 1-2 additional premium SKUs)

    +2.3 L / mo

    Outlet currently sells 8.5% premium SKUs vs top-performing peers in the same cohort at 13.6%. Closing this gap typically lifts volume by ~2.3 L/month.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Longitude
    +0.9
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +0.8
  • mass_share
    +0.8
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +0.6
  • territory_radius_m
    +0.5

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.2
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.9
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.2
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.3
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.4

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 75.6 L → after 75.6 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 75.6 L → after 75.6 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.