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OUT_10634

Pharmacy · Small · Central · distributor DIST_C_01

Moderate

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
75.0 L
Recent monthly avg
18.0 L
Own Q90
50.0 L
Active months
20 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
7
HHI (1.5 km)
2,640
Replenishment friction
40.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +14.7 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~14.7 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · sku_mix

    Shift SKU mix toward premium (stock 1-2 additional premium SKUs)

    +3.2 L / mo

    Outlet currently sells 6.0% premium SKUs vs top-performing peers in the same cohort at 13.3%. Closing this gap typically lifts volume by ~3.2 L/month.

  3. Rank 3 · cooler

    Add 2th cooler to outlet

    +1.8 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +1.8 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • mass_share
    +1.9
  • Outlet_Type_Pharmacy
    +1.7
  • spatial_demand_score
    +1.3
  • super_premium_share
    +1.3
  • monthly_cv
    +1.2

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.5
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.0
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -24.8
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.7
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -22.3

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+1.8 L / mo
base 73.4 L → after 75.2 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 73.4 L → after 73.4 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.