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OUT_10367

Bakery · Small · Central · distributor DIST_C_03

Moderate

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
84.5 L
Recent monthly avg
25.2 L
Own Q90
89.3 L
Active months
18 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
4
HHI (1.5 km)
3,635
Replenishment friction
22.2%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +17.1 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~17.1 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • mid_share
    +2.4
  • mass_share
    +1.8
  • Outlet_Type_Bakery
    +1.3
  • spatial_demand_score
    +1.0
  • super_premium_share
    +0.9

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.9
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.1
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.4
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -22.7
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -22.4

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 85.4 L → after 85.4 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 85.4 L → after 85.4 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.