All outlets

OUT_09638

Bakery · Small · Central · distributor DIST_C_01

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
69.9 L
Recent monthly avg
16.5 L
Own Q90
73.1 L
Active months
15 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
6
HHI (1.5 km)
5,427
Replenishment friction
33.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +14.7 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~14.7 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_cv
    +1.5
  • mass_share
    +1.5
  • Outlet_Type_Bakery
    +1.3
  • spatial_demand_score
    +1.0
  • mid_share
    +0.9

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.7
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.2
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.1
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.3
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.9

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 73.6 L → after 73.6 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 73.6 L → after 73.6 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.