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OUT_09593

Bakery · Small · Central · distributor DIST_C_03

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
80.6 L
Recent monthly avg
20.0 L
Own Q90
68.8 L
Active months
15 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
4
HHI (1.5 km)
2,873
Replenishment friction
20.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +16.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~16.8 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Add 2th cooler to outlet

    +1.8 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +1.8 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_cv
    +1.4
  • Longitude
    +0.9
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +0.8
  • mass_share
    +0.8
  • spatial_demand_score
    +0.7

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.3
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.3
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -23.8
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -22.3
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.3

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+1.8 L / mo
base 83.9 L → after 85.7 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 83.9 L → after 83.9 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.