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OUT_09161

Bakery · Small · Central · distributor DIST_C_02

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
75.5 L
Recent monthly avg
15.0 L
Own Q90
43.9 L
Active months
13 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
12
HHI (1.5 km)
1,461
Replenishment friction
15.4%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +14.1 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~14.1 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · merchandising

    Deploy prime-shelf branded merchandising (posters, shelf-talkers)

    +0.7 L / mo

    Outlet faces type-weighted competition pressure of 8.2 from nearby same-type stores. Targeted in-store branded visibility recovers an estimated 0.7 L/month of intercepted traffic.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_cv
    +3.3
  • Longitude
    +1.0
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +0.9
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +0.6
  • territory_radius_m
    +0.2

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.6
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.5
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.0
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.1
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.0

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 70.7 L → after 70.7 L
Remove competitive drag+1.8 L / mo
base 70.7 L → after 72.5 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.