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OUT_08879

Pharmacy · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
239.3 L
Recent monthly avg
108.1 L
Own Q90
247.2 L
Active months
27 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
16
HHI (1.5 km)
953
Replenishment friction
14.8%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 3th cooler to outlet

    +315.2 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +315.2 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +45.2 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~45.2 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +29.4
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +14.2
  • Province_Western
    +6.4
  • Outlet_Type_Pharmacy
    +4.1
  • spatial_demand_score
    +2.1

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -59.6
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.9
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.1
  • monthly_volume_median
    -15.8
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -14.2

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+315.2 L / mo
base 225.8 L → after 541.0 L
Remove competitive drag-2.0 L / mo
base 225.8 L → after 223.9 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 227

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
315.2 L
Monthly margin
LKR 9,362
Payback
5.3 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 150,104

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.