All outlets

OUT_08089

Bakery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

Moderate

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
85.8 L
Recent monthly avg
21.1 L
Own Q90
62.6 L
Active months
18 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
10
HHI (1.5 km)
1,225
Replenishment friction
22.2%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +21.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~21.8 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +13.0
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +2.8
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +2.2
  • mass_share
    +1.6
  • territory_radius_m
    +1.0

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -61.1
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.4
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -24.4
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -23.5
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -22.3

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 109.0 L → after 109.0 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 109.0 L → after 109.0 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 134

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.