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OUT_07942

SMMT · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Moderate

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
88.7 L
Recent monthly avg
22.3 L
Own Q90
66.0 L
Active months
19 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
19
HHI (1.5 km)
806
Replenishment friction
31.6%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +19.5 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~19.5 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +7.1
  • mid_share
    +4.5
  • Distributor_ID_DIST_W_01
    +2.6
  • mass_share
    +1.6
  • Latitude
    +1.5

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -61.2
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -30.1
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.7
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -25.0
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -23.7

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 97.3 L → after 97.3 L
Remove competitive drag-0.1 L / mo
base 97.3 L → after 97.2 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 125

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.