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OUT_07692

Hotel · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
62.6 L
Recent monthly avg
9.7 L
Own Q90
32.1 L
Active months
13 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
15
HHI (1.5 km)
1,391
Replenishment friction
23.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +13.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~13.8 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Add 2th cooler to outlet

    +4.1 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +4.1 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  3. Rank 3 · merchandising

    Deploy prime-shelf branded merchandising (posters, shelf-talkers)

    +0.8 L / mo

    Outlet faces type-weighted competition pressure of 13.2 from nearby same-type stores. Targeted in-store branded visibility recovers an estimated 0.8 L/month of intercepted traffic.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +7.2
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +1.9
  • monthly_cv
    +1.9
  • spatial_demand_score
    +1.8
  • type_weighted_pressure
    +1.0

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -61.6
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.7
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.0
  • monthly_volume_std
    -23.9
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -22.6

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+4.1 L / mo
base 69.0 L → after 73.1 L
Remove competitive drag+2.1 L / mo
base 69.0 L → after 71.1 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 53

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.