All outlets

OUT_07283

SMMT · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
77.7 L
Recent monthly avg
17.0 L
Own Q90
64.7 L
Active months
15 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
19
HHI (1.5 km)
898
Replenishment friction
13.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +15.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~15.8 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · sku_mix

    Shift SKU mix toward premium (stock 1-2 additional premium SKUs)

    +3.1 L / mo

    Outlet currently sells 8.0% premium SKUs vs top-performing peers in the same cohort at 14.6%. Closing this gap typically lifts volume by ~3.1 L/month.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +5.3
  • monthly_cv
    +2.8
  • Distributor_ID_DIST_W_01
    +2.6
  • mass_share
    +2.0
  • Latitude
    +1.9

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -60.9
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.8
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -26.2
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -25.5
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -23.6

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 79.2 L → after 79.2 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 79.2 L → after 79.2 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 67

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.