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OUT_07272

Kiosk · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
215.3 L
Recent monthly avg
130.5 L
Own Q90
228.0 L
Active months
29 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
16
HHI (1.5 km)
866
Replenishment friction
24.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 3th cooler to outlet

    +313.8 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +313.8 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +43.1 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~43.1 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +25.4
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +13.4
  • Province_Western
    +6.9
  • mass_share
    +2.8
  • mid_share
    +1.6

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -59.5
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.7
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.5
  • monthly_volume_median
    -16.0
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -13.8

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+313.8 L / mo
base 215.3 L → after 529.1 L
Remove competitive drag+0.1 L / mo
base 215.3 L → after 215.4 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 93

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
313.8 L
Monthly margin
LKR 9,261
Payback
5.4 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 147,946

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.