All outlets

OUT_07193

Grocery · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_03

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
232.8 L
Recent monthly avg
96.5 L
Own Q90
263.6 L
Active months
27 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
12
HHI (1.5 km)
938
Replenishment friction
22.2%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 3th cooler to outlet

    +300.2 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +300.1 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +47.3 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~47.3 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +23.9
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +14.8
  • Province_Western
    +6.6
  • Outlet_Type_Grocery
    +5.4
  • monthly_volume_std
    +2.0

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -59.8
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.9
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -20.3
  • monthly_volume_median
    -16.5
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -8.4

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+300.1 L / mo
base 236.7 L → after 536.8 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 236.7 L → after 236.7 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 255

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
300.1 L
Monthly margin
LKR 10,035
Payback
5.0 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 164,490

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.