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OUT_07145

SMMT · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
87.6 L
Recent monthly avg
16.0 L
Own Q90
49.1 L
Active months
12 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
17
HHI (1.5 km)
965
Replenishment friction
16.7%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +16.1 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~16.1 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +7.1
  • mass_share
    +1.9
  • super_premium_share
    +1.7
  • monthly_cv
    +1.5
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +1.3

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -60.8
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.8
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.4
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -25.4
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -23.9

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 80.6 L → after 80.6 L
Remove competitive drag+0.3 L / mo
base 80.6 L → after 80.9 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 150

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.