All outlets

OUT_06440

Grocery · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_03

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
216.4 L
Recent monthly avg
129.2 L
Own Q90
238.2 L
Active months
29 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
18
HHI (1.5 km)
884
Replenishment friction
17.2%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 3th cooler to outlet

    +316.3 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +316.3 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +43.0 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~43.0 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +32.0
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +15.1
  • Province_Western
    +5.7
  • mass_share
    +2.6
  • Outlet_Type_Grocery
    +1.4

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -59.7
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.9
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.5
  • monthly_volume_median
    -15.8
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -13.7

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+316.3 L / mo
base 215.1 L → after 531.4 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 215.1 L → after 215.1 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 106

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
316.3 L
Monthly margin
LKR 9,770
Payback
5.1 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 158,819

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.