All outlets

OUT_06371

Bakery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

High

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
88.3 L
Recent monthly avg
27.7 L
Own Q90
90.4 L
Active months
18 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
15
HHI (1.5 km)
850
Replenishment friction
44.4%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +26.6 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~26.6 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +12.4
  • Outlet_Type_Bakery
    +3.1
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +2.7
  • spatial_demand_score
    +2.6
  • mid_share
    +2.5

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -61.9
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.3
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -23.7
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -22.7
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -22.5

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 133.0 L → after 133.0 L
Remove competitive drag-0.1 L / mo
base 133.0 L → after 132.9 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 110

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.