All outlets

OUT_05913

Bakery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
85.6 L
Recent monthly avg
25.8 L
Own Q90
85.0 L
Active months
16 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
16
HHI (1.5 km)
1,812
Replenishment friction
31.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +22.0 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~22.0 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · merchandising

    Deploy prime-shelf branded merchandising (posters, shelf-talkers)

    +0.5 L / mo

    Outlet faces type-weighted competition pressure of 14.2 from nearby same-type stores. Targeted in-store branded visibility recovers an estimated 0.5 L/month of intercepted traffic.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +12.2
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +2.8
  • Distributor_ID_DIST_W_01
    +2.3
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +2.2
  • super_premium_share
    +2.0

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -61.6
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.9
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -24.8
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.2
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -22.9

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 109.9 L → after 109.9 L
Remove competitive drag+1.2 L / mo
base 109.9 L → after 111.0 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 104

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.