All outlets

OUT_05659

Bakery · Large · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Moderate

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
577.0 L
Recent monthly avg
16.5 L
Own Q90
53.2 L
Active months
20 / 36
Coolers
3
Local competitors (1 km)
19
HHI (1.5 km)
981
Replenishment friction
10.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +115.0 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~115.0 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Cooler_Count
    +300.6
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +79.2
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +57.4
  • Province_Western
    +6.3
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +4.4

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -53.5
  • monthly_volume_mean
    -51.4
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -23.9
  • monthly_volume_std
    -15.9
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -14.1

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 575.2 L → after 575.2 L
Remove competitive drag+0.4 L / mo
base 575.2 L → after 575.6 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 3,863

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.