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OUT_04902

Eatery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_03

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
84.9 L
Recent monthly avg
13.5 L
Own Q90
35.9 L
Active months
16 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
14
HHI (1.5 km)
1,054
Replenishment friction
18.8%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +16.2 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~16.2 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · sku_mix

    Shift SKU mix toward premium (stock 1-2 additional premium SKUs)

    +3.7 L / mo

    Outlet currently sells 6.4% premium SKUs vs top-performing peers in the same cohort at 14.0%. Closing this gap typically lifts volume by ~3.7 L/month.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +9.9
  • monthly_cv
    +2.5
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +2.0
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +1.7
  • competitors_2km
    +1.3

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -61.8
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.7
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.4
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -23.7
  • monthly_volume_std
    -22.0

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 80.9 L → after 80.9 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 80.9 L → after 80.9 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 159

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.