All outlets

OUT_04849

Bakery · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
217.4 L
Recent monthly avg
82.1 L
Own Q90
206.3 L
Active months
22 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
14
HHI (1.5 km)
1,445
Replenishment friction
13.6%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +41.2 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~41.2 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +27.9
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +15.2
  • Province_Western
    +6.3
  • super_premium_share
    +1.3
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +1.1

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -55.6
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.0
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.4
  • monthly_volume_median
    -16.0
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -14.5

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 206.1 L → after 206.1 L
Remove competitive drag+0.1 L / mo
base 206.1 L → after 206.2 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 351

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.