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OUT_04655

Eatery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_03

Moderate

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
71.6 L
Recent monthly avg
16.8 L
Own Q90
56.7 L
Active months
20 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
16
HHI (1.5 km)
812
Replenishment friction
45.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +19.0 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~19.0 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +12.7
  • spatial_demand_score
    +2.7
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +2.5
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +2.1
  • climate_jan_temp_c
    +0.8

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -60.6
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.7
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -24.6
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -22.9
  • monthly_volume_std
    -22.1

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 95.2 L → after 95.2 L
Remove competitive drag-0.1 L / mo
base 95.2 L → after 95.1 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 88

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.