All outlets

OUT_04480

Bakery · Large · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
708.8 L
Recent monthly avg
440.3 L
Own Q90
698.7 L
Active months
29 / 36
Coolers
4
Local competitors (1 km)
17
HHI (1.5 km)
1,221
Replenishment friction
13.8%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +145.3 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~145.3 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    +187.2
  • Cooler_Count
    +137.1
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +67.1
  • monthly_volume_std
    +49.8
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +39.1

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -122.6
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -22.5
  • Province_Southern
    -3.3
  • mid_share
    -2.6
  • Outlet_Type_Bakery
    -1.6

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 726.5 L → after 726.5 L
Remove competitive drag+0.1 L / mo
base 726.5 L → after 726.6 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 915

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.