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OUT_04203

Pharmacy · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_03

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
222.6 L
Recent monthly avg
92.6 L
Own Q90
236.7 L
Active months
24 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
16
HHI (1.5 km)
719
Replenishment friction
8.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 3th cooler to outlet

    +311.7 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +311.7 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +45.7 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~45.7 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +30.8
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +14.4
  • Province_Western
    +6.2
  • Outlet_Type_Pharmacy
    +3.6
  • mass_share
    +2.7

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -59.6
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.6
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.4
  • monthly_volume_median
    -15.8
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -11.8

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+311.7 L / mo
base 228.5 L → after 540.2 L
Remove competitive drag+0.8 L / mo
base 228.5 L → after 229.2 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 225

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
311.7 L
Monthly margin
LKR 9,109
Payback
5.5 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 144,692

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.