All outlets

OUT_04079

Bakery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_03

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
80.2 L
Recent monthly avg
25.2 L
Own Q90
85.5 L
Active months
22 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
14
HHI (1.5 km)
860
Replenishment friction
13.6%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +21.2 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~21.2 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · merchandising

    Deploy prime-shelf branded merchandising (posters, shelf-talkers)

    +1.6 L / mo

    Outlet faces type-weighted competition pressure of 14.7 from nearby same-type stores. Targeted in-store branded visibility recovers an estimated 1.6 L/month of intercepted traffic.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +12.8
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +2.8
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +2.2
  • mass_share
    +1.8
  • Distributor_ID_DIST_W_03
    +1.8

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -61.1
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.4
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -24.8
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.1
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -22.6

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 106.0 L → after 106.0 L
Remove competitive drag+3.9 L / mo
base 106.0 L → after 109.9 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 58

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.