All outlets

OUT_03999

Bakery · Extra Large · Western · distributor DIST_W_03

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
1,880.0 L
Recent monthly avg
1,287.2 L
Own Q90
1,864.8 L
Active months
35 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
14
HHI (1.5 km)
1,231
Replenishment friction
2.9%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +364.7 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~364.7 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    +652.3
  • monthly_volume_mean
    +443.4
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +152.9
  • monthly_volume_median
    +132.5
  • monthly_volume_std
    +111.6

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -29.2
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -28.6
  • Province_Southern
    -4.1
  • monthly_cv
    -2.5
  • Distributor_ID_DIST_W_01
    -2.3

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 1,823.7 L → after 1,823.7 L
Remove competitive drag-3.0 L / mo
base 1,823.7 L → after 1,820.7 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 4,676

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.