All outlets

OUT_03947

SMMT · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
238.3 L
Recent monthly avg
108.0 L
Own Q90
280.2 L
Active months
23 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
15
HHI (1.5 km)
1,524
Replenishment friction
26.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 3th cooler to outlet

    +304.1 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +304.1 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +47.9 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~47.9 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +32.0
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +16.9
  • monthly_volume_std
    +6.0
  • Province_Western
    +4.4
  • mass_share
    +2.8

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -59.0
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.3
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.6
  • monthly_volume_median
    -16.0
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -8.8

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+304.1 L / mo
base 239.6 L → after 543.7 L
Remove competitive drag+0.1 L / mo
base 239.6 L → after 239.7 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 222

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
304.1 L
Monthly margin
LKR 8,859
Payback
5.6 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 139,344

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.