All outlets

OUT_03897

Bakery · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
221.2 L
Recent monthly avg
111.2 L
Own Q90
220.9 L
Active months
24 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
16
HHI (1.5 km)
933
Replenishment friction
16.7%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +42.6 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~42.6 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +26.9
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +15.4
  • Province_Western
    +6.7
  • Distributor_ID_DIST_W_01
    +2.9
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +1.2

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -56.0
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.3
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.9
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -16.5
  • monthly_volume_median
    -16.0

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 212.9 L → after 212.9 L
Remove competitive drag+0.1 L / mo
base 212.9 L → after 213.0 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 226

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.