All outlets

OUT_03773

Bakery · Large · Western · distributor DIST_W_03

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
733.4 L
Recent monthly avg
481.5 L
Own Q90
780.9 L
Active months
32 / 36
Coolers
5
Local competitors (1 km)
13
HHI (1.5 km)
1,219
Replenishment friction
9.4%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +152.7 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~152.7 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Cooler_Count
    +286.5
  • monthly_volume_mean
    +82.1
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +70.9
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +65.6
  • monthly_volume_median
    +37.5

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -117.7
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -22.3
  • Province_Southern
    -2.9
  • mid_share
    -2.4
  • Outlet_Type_Bakery
    -1.2

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 763.5 L → after 763.5 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 763.5 L → after 763.5 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 870

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.