All outlets

OUT_03472

Bakery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

Moderate

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
72.4 L
Recent monthly avg
16.5 L
Own Q90
45.7 L
Active months
19 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
13
HHI (1.5 km)
1,272
Replenishment friction
21.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +18.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~18.7 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · merchandising

    Deploy prime-shelf branded merchandising (posters, shelf-talkers)

    +1.1 L / mo

    Outlet faces type-weighted competition pressure of 15.8 from nearby same-type stores. Targeted in-store branded visibility recovers an estimated 1.1 L/month of intercepted traffic.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +13.0
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +2.7
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +2.1
  • type_weighted_pressure
    +1.5
  • Latitude
    +1.2

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -61.2
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.7
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -24.3
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -22.5
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.5

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 93.7 L → after 93.7 L
Remove competitive drag+2.7 L / mo
base 93.7 L → after 96.4 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 95

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.