OUT_03216
Bakery · Large · Western · distributor DIST_W_03
Predicted potential
January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.
Geographical Location
Store location on the map.
Recommended actions
Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.
- Rank 1 · cooler+327.8 L / mo
Add 5th cooler to outlet
Counterfactual model predicts +327.8 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.
- Rank 2 · festival_promo+127.3 L / mo
Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak
Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~127.3 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.
- Rank 3 · sku_mix+30.6 L / mo
Shift SKU mix toward premium (stock 1-2 additional premium SKUs)
Outlet currently sells 6.4% premium SKUs vs top-performing peers in the same cohort at 14.4%. Closing this gap typically lifts volume by ~30.6 L/month.
Top reasons the score is high
Largest positive SHAP contributors.
- Cooler_Count+311.0
- Outlet_Size_Large+87.1
- Outlet_Size_Small+61.5
- Province_Western+6.5
- avg_price_per_liter+5.8
Top reasons the score is held back
Largest negative SHAP contributors.
- Outlet_Size_Extra Large-51.1
- monthly_volume_mean-50.9
- monthly_volume_q95-22.0
- monthly_volume_std-14.3
- climate_jan_humid_pct-13.5
What-if scenarios
Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.
Cooler deployment business case
Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.
AI explanation
A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.
Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.