OUT_03199
Bakery · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_01
Predicted potential
January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.
Geographical Location
Store location on the map.
Recommended actions
Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.
- Rank 1 · cooler+326.8 L / mo
Add 3th cooler to outlet
Counterfactual model predicts +326.8 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.
- Rank 2 · festival_promo+43.6 L / mo
Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak
Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~43.6 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.
- Rank 3 · sku_mix+6.7 L / mo
Shift SKU mix toward premium (stock 1-2 additional premium SKUs)
Outlet currently sells 10.1% premium SKUs vs top-performing peers in the same cohort at 15.2%. Closing this gap typically lifts volume by ~6.7 L/month.
Top reasons the score is high
Largest positive SHAP contributors.
- Outlet_Size_Small+28.2
- Outlet_Size_Medium+14.0
- Province_Western+6.1
- mass_share+2.8
- Distributor_ID_DIST_W_01+1.9
Top reasons the score is held back
Largest negative SHAP contributors.
- monthly_volume_mean-60.1
- Outlet_Size_Extra Large-28.8
- Outlet_Size_Large-21.7
- monthly_volume_median-16.1
- monthly_volume_q95-15.0
What-if scenarios
Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.
Cooler deployment business case
Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.
AI explanation
A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.
Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.