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OUT_03160

Pharmacy · Medium · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

Moderate

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
240.9 L
Recent monthly avg
87.6 L
Own Q90
207.6 L
Active months
21 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
12
HHI (1.5 km)
871
Replenishment friction
33.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 3th cooler to outlet

    +320.3 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +320.3 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +46.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~46.8 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +27.5
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +14.0
  • Province_Western
    +7.2
  • Outlet_Type_Pharmacy
    +4.2
  • mid_share
    +3.4

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -59.4
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.9
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.4
  • monthly_volume_median
    -16.0
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -14.2

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+320.3 L / mo
base 234.0 L → after 554.3 L
Remove competitive drag+0.6 L / mo
base 234.0 L → after 234.6 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 323

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
320.3 L
Monthly margin
LKR 8,986
Payback
5.6 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 142,060

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.